Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley
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Barry Eichengreen is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley. This discussion can be followed in its entirety here.
TO THIS discussion I would add another reason not to overreact. Premature talk of inflation was being stoked in 1936/7 by"wait for it"higher commodity prices and rising government bond yields. The best source on this is the League of Nations' World Economic Survey, the 1930s equivalent of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. With the recovery of economic activity it was quite natural, as noted by the authors of the 1936/37 Survey, that the demand for long-term investment and therefore long-term interest rates should rise. But the Survey also contained a caveat: this tendency was even greater in the short run than might be the case subsequently insofar as investors battered by shocks to the financial system preferred, at least temporarily, to keep their investments in short-term, liquid form.
In addition, as evidence of green shoots began to accumulate, traders had bid up the prices of tin, rubber, wool and wheat. (It didn't help that there had been schemes to restrict the production of several of these commodities during the Depression.) In the event, the markets got ahead of themselves: these speculative positions collapsed and prices began falling back even before activity in the United States turned down.
From this episode I draw the lesson that policy makers should think twice before concluding on the basis of rising long-term rates and higher commodity prices that it is time to exit from stimulative policies.
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